如果美聯儲錯了,怎麼辦?


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老雷|投資人 The Market Memo 用於記錄我對國際金融市場的思考隨筆。

6 thoughts on “如果美聯儲錯了,怎麼辦?”

  1. 雷公您好,我看纳指的周线图,现在应该是进去了趋势的第三个阶段,大幅上升。这次回退会不会有可能导致2000年互联网泡沫那次回退。如果不会的话,有什么判断依据吗。我记得您之前说过现在纳指的ps估值已接近2000泡沫那次估值的峰值

  2. 老雷你好,非常感谢这一年多来不断地分享信息和经验。想请教一个问题:在像这样大盘趋势发生改变的时候,如果持有能源基金这样强势的品种,是也应该考虑减仓?还是应该根据所持有品种的具体走势而定?谢谢!

    1. 兩個持倉原則:
      1.強於大盤,並且
      2.多頭趨勢
      你可以根據自己的風險偏好來設置多頭趨勢的參數,比如:20均線高於60均線,或者60均線高於120均線,無論採用任何參數,都是為了給自己一條底線,跌破底線就走人。

      1. 非常感谢老雷的见解。你这一年多的辛劳让我对市场的认知有了脱胎换骨的变化。无论是交易的理念还是对整体市场状态的感知都有了质的飞跃。现在看盘越来越少,对各种市场数据倒是越来越敏感。我注意到VIX和CDX从去年七八月份开始就和大盘同时向上运行,心里一直有个疙瘩。看看这次调整会不会改变这种关联性。

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